Recession Stress
Test 2019

With 3 out of 4 economists forecasting a US economic recession by 2021 , companies find themselves at varied levels of vulnerability and with varied ability to deal with these coming challenges. Cicero Group sees an opportunity to bring value to meeting this challenge by helping corporates assess their readiness and resilience to recession.

Executive Summary

In light of recent economic predictions, Cicero Group is conducting a study on the risk exposure and preparedness of US corporations to a potential economic recession within the United States. The study will consist of primary and secondary research, including a survey of business decision makers at US-based corporations. The findings of this research will be provided to study participants to support an understanding or their company’s risk and improve their preparation to a US economic recession. Broader insights are intended to be published by Cicero Group, and with business publications like Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Harvard Business Review, and other reputable outlets. 

The study will focus on developing a proprietary outlook on a potential US economic recession and its effects on US corporations, by: 

  • Using historical data combined with current economic analysis and perspectives of US business leaders to predict the likelihoodduration and severity of domestic GDP decline. 
  • Understanding the valueatrisk for US companies with a coming economic recession in terms of both top and bottom line results at the national, regional, industry and company level. 
  • Identifying clear indicators of risk exposure to an economic recession for US corporates.  
  • Identifying clear indicators of a company’s preparedness for a potential economic recession. 
  • Recognize company dynamics and leadership decisions that improve a company’s resiliency to a possible US economic recession.

    Research Instruments and Methodology

    The research will consist of both primary and secondary analysis. The primary data will be developed through the Recession Stress Test survey sent out to nearly 17,000 key business decision makers across the United States representing companies with annual revenues ranging from $10M to over $1B, across a wide range of industries. In addition, the intent is to conduct in-depth interviews with those who volunteer in order to obtain deeper detail on critical topics. Secondary research on economic and business trends and responses will also be used as part of the analysis and reporting. 

    The survey will be launched on October 29th, 2019 and will remain open to participants until mid-November 2019. Following the analysis of the survey and report development, key findings will be shared with all survey participants, with broader implications provided to other media outlets.  

    Benefit to Survey Participants

    Within 6-8 weeks of the conclusion of the survey, Cicero Group will send all participants who successfully complete the survey a report of the findings, benchmarked by industry and/or business function, at no cost. These survey findings will assist companies in not only realizing a clearer understanding of the current economic climate among their industry peers but also gauging the general preparedness of their peers for an economic recession.

    Take the Survey

    If you are a business decision-maker (director-level or above) at a US-based company with an annual turnover of >$10M USD and would like to participate in the survey, please contact Chase Christiansen at

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